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Mike Superstein's Hollywood Park Analysis for Saturday, May 17

PREAKNESS STAKES

Over the last three decades, the Kentucky Derby, with its giant fields and cluttered running conditions, has kept several stars from joining racing's Triple Crown club. This year the hard part is over for BIG BROWN. Unleashing a devastating turn of foot, as opposed to his usual front running style, 'BROWN left no doubt as to the nation's best three year old. It's surprising that after such a dominating display in Louisville, that 12 horses showed up to challenge 'Brown in the Preakness. What may be even more puzzling is the lack of speed among the new challengers, considering the shorter trip and Pimlico's speed-favoring track. This time around, Kent Desormeaux will be able to place the Richard Dutrow trainee either on the lead or just off. All in all, BIG BROWN will be able to win the Preakness without extending as much energy as he did in the Derby. Sorting out the rest of the field, GAYEGO, the only Derby entrant not to be scared away by BIG BROWN, will get the stalking trip he needs. In the Derby, a sluggish start usually means elimination, and that was the case with GAYEGO. The Arkansas Derby winner will be able to run his race this afternoon, which is good enough for second. BEHINDATTHEBAR's connections felt that his victory in the Lexington was too close to the Derby and wisely skipped the race. He arrives in Maryland fresh, has trained well, but again is only good enough to battle for the minors behind BIG BROWN.

RACE ONE

HEMET defeated similar from the rail in fast time. So why does he stay at the same level? He's facing a much softer $10,000 group than last time and if he makes it around in one piece should score right back. CITY STORMER won at a slightly farther trip at this level April 13. That victory was only his third in 33 attempts, so obviously he rarely puts two good ones together. He gets a rider upgrade to Michael Baze today. CORVINUS rallied from far back for a nose victory in a restricted claimer. He's had some time off since and his previous race showed he doesn't have to come from that far back.

RACE TWO

INDIAN SUN has been facing superior opposition and wasn't disgraced in the Grace 2 Arkansas Derby in his last start. He's even better on the grass, with two wins and two seconds from four starts, including a nose victory at Santa Anita in his last try on that surface. Richard Migliore, who accompanied the Dan Hendricks colt to Oaklawn, gets a return engagement. TIZ WEST won his last pair, including the La Puente in his stakes debut. This one possesses gameness and tactical speed and can not be taken lightly. EZ DREAMER, an Arizona bred, went back to his home state and overwhelmed his opponents in the Arizona Breeders Derby. Prior to that he was a close third to TIZ WEST in the La Puente, proving he can act around these parts.

RACE THREE

All BIG RED TATE has to do to win this is duplicate his debut second-place finish. If he improves off the race, he'll air. 'TATE settled near the back of the pack, swung out for room entering the stretch then finished full of run to be less than a length back at the finish. WARREN'S YODLER wound up seven lengths back of 'TATE after tracking the early pace. 'YODLER hadn't run since October, so he probably needed the race and can cut that margin significantly. SYNDICATOR picked up the pieces in his last pair to run second. He's a fit with these.

RACE FOUR

SUPAH BLITZ was a risky claim by Jeff Mullins, but the gamble might pay off. A multiple stakes winner with earnings of more than $1.3 million, 'BLITZ returned after a three year layoff in a $32,000 claiming race at Santa Anita and was plucked by Mullins. Considering the time off, the strength of the race he exits and the fact that the trainer raises him to $100,000, it appears SUPAH BLITZ has a lot more winning left in him. DIXIE MEISTER is sure to garner his share of support. Winner of the Grade 2 Californian over this track in 2006, 'DIXIE returned off a year layoff with a solid third-place effort to Mast Track closing day in Arcadia and has trained steadily for Julio Canani since. LUHUK'S DANCER was third in an extremely strong sprint which saw the winner, Street Boss, return to win the Los Angeles Handicap, and the second place finisher, Tropic Storm, win his next allowance start.

RACE FIVE

DEAREST TRICKSKI is blessed with intense early zip but can fight it out if necessary. Those two qualities have allowed her to win nine of 13 starts, including her last five in a row. In her last two outings, the John Sadler trainee captured the Grade I La Brea Stakes and the Sunshine Millions Filly Sprint. ASHLEY'S KITTY will be in the right spot if OVERLY TEMPTING puts too much early pressure on 'TRICKSKI. She didn't get that assistance when finishing sixth to the top choice in the La Brea. SILKY SMOOTH has trained smartly since her last start in February and will be piloted by Rafael Bejarano.

RACE SIX

First time starter SOLAR MISS has a snappy work tab for Kathy Walsh, including bullet drills of 46 2/5 April 12 and 1:11 flat May 2. Bejarano aboard is like the cherry on top of a sundae. SMART'N STRIKING is another beginner who is bred to win early (Smart Strike). The main concern with the Craig Dollase filly is the fact that her sire stands for $150,000, yet she was purchased for only $62,000. HOLLADAY DIXIE has an improving pattern for top trainer Carla Gaines and has the experience edge over the top pair. Victor Espinoza inherits the mount.

RACE SEVEN

In a complete grab bag, RIVER ECHO gets slight preference. Freshened since March, 'ECHO was a fast-closing second in his last start in a pretty good race for the class. QUICK ENOUGH has been right there every time, finishing in the money five of six starts. He comes off a narrow loss to repeat winner Skimmetry down the hill at Santa Anita. LIT'SGOODLOOKNGRAY is a must-use in the exotics, but his three for 21 win slate does not inspire confidence in terms of a victory.

RACE EIGHT

IRISH TY was ultra game in victory after 20 months on the sidelines. There is no logical reason why 'IRISH can't win right back against a similar field. WORLD WAR was a close third in his Gulfstream finale and was haltered by Mike Mitchell. Mitchell always seems to have a knack with these Florida invaders. TEN DOWNING STREET may be tailing off, but when right can step with these. He was a good second at this trip against better a year ago on this surface.

RACE NINE

ACE HIGH HAND has a history of infirmities, but his recent morning activity stamps him fit and ready to roll. Anything close to his debut effort gets the money here. PHANTOM WILDCAT was well supported but gave way midstretch. He'll likely hold on much better today with that race under his belt. NATIONWIDE FAMILY worked well for Eddie Truman, but that trainer has had difficulty winning with first time starters. Maybe Bejarano can improve Truman's percentage in that category.

RACE TEN

HAVENS LAKE and CONCETTINA, both trained by Mullins, figure to battle it out for top honors. 'LAKE defeated $20,000 claimers April 20 and is confidently vaulted up to $50,000. CONCETTINA was a solid third in a starter allowance race and puts on the shades. She should also enjoy the move to turf. LOVE HAPPENS was overmatched in her grass debut. She tries the lawn again, but moves back to her proper level. Look for 'HAPPENS to come rolling the last quarter for Mitchell and Bejarano.

RACE ELEVEN

RHODINE'S KID will never find an easier chance to break his maiden. He's been running into tough class droppers recently, but no such animal exists here. Single the R B Hess runner with confidence. DEAD HEAT perked up a bit when dropped in for a $40,000. He had a wide trip and checked in fourth. 'HEAT moves even further down for this and should complete the exacta. MCARTHUR is a follower, not a leader. He dips to the basement today, but don't expect more than a third place finish.

Best Bet-HEMET (1)


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